Unaffordable Rents
June 4, 2015
The National Low Income Housing Coalition has published a comprehensive report entitled Out of Reach 2015 describing in great detail how low wages and high rents affect people throughout the United States.
California, our most populous state and a historical trendsetter, has the 3rd highest rents in the nation. Currently the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom APARTMENT (not a single family home, which is much higher) is $1,386. In order to afford this level of rent and utilities — without paying more than 30% of income on housing —a household must earn $4,619 monthly or $55,433 annually. Assuming a 40-hour work week, 52 weeks per year, this level of income translates into an hourly Housing Wage of $26.55. This in a state where the minimum wage is $9, the average renter’s wage is $18.96, and where fully 45% of the population rent. But that’s not all. The rent affordable at median income is $1,808.
Yes, unemployment has declined since the 2008 economic collapse. But many of the new jobs are so low-paying that too many people can support themselves only if they’re homeless. In the Los Angeles Area, for example, the trend is to share housing. Except for the well to do and above, it is now common to find three, four or more generations in one household. The higher density and lack of privacy has ramifications that negatively impact the quality of life of the occupants and cause great stress to public services. Water pipes, sewers, schools, freeways- all strain to keep up with the demand, with no relief in sight.
There are of course several reasons for this nightmarish situation. One is the abysmal, widening gap in the distribution of wealth and income, where a tiny minority owns most of the wealth and take the lion’s share of national income. Builders, who are in business to make money, tend to cater to high-end buyers, and that’s not the 45% of the population presently compelled to rent because they cannot afford to buy, even in gang-infested slums. Another is lack of vacant land to build on within the greater metro area, already absurdly spread out. Yet a third is lack of economic growth east and north of the city due to a number of factors, including demographic changes, topography and lack of water, currently exacerbated by the ongoing long term mega drought.
Thus, the higher rents are a function of lack of large-scale, low-cost new construction, particularly for young people saddled with long term college loans. Under the present circumstances, it’s no surprise to see a declining birth rate for those with college degrees, with all its related consequences.
Global Warming Not Slowing
A study published on June 4 2015 by the National Climatic Data Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that a UN 2013 report erroneously concluded that there had been a 15-year hiatus in global warming. Turns out, the rate of global warming was measured incorrectly: the hiatus never happened and global warming continues unabated.
Other studies have suggested that several factors such as air pollution, lower solar energy levels and volcanic activity may have slowed down the rate of warming. As the trend did not change, it is now thought that had it not been for those factors, the rate of warming might have actually increased.
California Needs 42 Cubic Km of Water
December 16, 2014
RELEASE 14-333
NASA Analysis: 11 Trillion Gallons to Replenish California Drought Losses
It will take about 11 trillion gallons of water (42 cubic kilometers) — around 1.5 times the maximum volume of the largest U.S. reservoir — to recover from California’s continuing drought, according to a new analysis of NASA satellite data.
The finding was part of a sobering update on the state’s drought made possible by space and airborne measurements and presented by NASA scientists Dec. 16 at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Such data are giving scientists an unprecedented ability to identify key features of droughts, data that can be used to inform water management decisions.
A team of scientists led by Jay Famiglietti of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California used data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites to develop the first-ever calculation of this kind — the volume of water required to end an episode of drought.
Earlier this year, at the peak of California’s current three-year drought, the team found that water storage in the state’s Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins was 11 trillion gallons below normal seasonal levels. Data collected since the launch of GRACE in 2002 shows this deficit has increased steadily.
“Spaceborne and airborne measurements of Earth’s changing shape, surface height and gravity field now allow us to measure and analyze key features of droughts better than ever before, including determining precisely when they begin and end and what their magnitude is at any moment in time,” Famiglietti said. “That’s an incredible advance and something that would be impossible using only ground-based observations.”
GRACE data reveal that, since 2011, the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins decreased in volume by four trillion gallons of water each year (15 cubic kilometers). That’s more water than California’s 38 million residents use each year for domestic and municipal purposes. About two-thirds of the loss is due to depletion of groundwater beneath California’s Central Valley.
In related results, early 2014 data from NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory indicate that snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada range was only half of previous estimates.
The observatory is providing the first-ever high-resolution observations of snow water volume in the Tuolumne River, Merced, Kings and Lakes basins of the Sierra Nevada and Uncompahgre watershed in the Upper Colorado River Basin.
To develop these calculations, the observatory measures how much water is in the snowpack and how much sunlight the snow absorbs, which influences how fast the snow melts. These data enable accurate estimates of how much water will flow out of a basin when the snow melts, which helps guide decision about reservoir filling and water allocation.
“The 2014 snowpack was one of the three lowest on record and the worst since 1977, when California’s population was half what it is now,” said Airborne Snow Observatory principal investigator Tom Painter of JPL. “Besides resulting in less snow water, the dramatic reduction in snow extent contributes to warming our climate by allowing the ground to absorb more sunlight. This reduces soil moisture, which makes it harder to get water from the snow into reservoirs once it does start snowing again.”
New drought maps show groundwater levels across the U.S. Southwest are in the lowest two to 10 percent since 1949. The maps, developed at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, combine GRACE data with other satellite observations.
“Integrating GRACE data with other satellite measurements provides a more holistic view of the impact of drought on water availability, including on groundwater resources, which are typically ignored in standard drought indices,” said Matt Rodell, chief of the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at Goddard.
The scientists cautioned that while the recent California storms have been helpful in replenishing water resources, they aren’t nearly enough to end the multi-year drought.
“It takes years to get into a drought of this severity, and it will likely take many more big storms, and years, to crawl out of it,” said Famiglietti.
NASA monitors Earth’s vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. The agency develops new ways to observe and study Earth’s interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.
Climate Change, Differentiation and Money
December 14, 2014
The United Nations climate change conference in Lima ended with a less than comprehensive accord.
There’s an anecdote from the age before radar that illustrates where the world stands today with respect to climate change:
A brand new dreadnought-class battleship is steaming at 15 knots in thick fog. The lookout spots a barely visible light straight ahead, at an indeterminate distance, and reports it to the captain. Based on the growing intensity of the light, the captain assumes a fast-approaching small vessel, as of yet invisible to the lookout, is unaware of the impending collision. Hastily he blows the horn and sends a wireless ordering it to move. A swift response comes in, short and blunt, “You move.” Incensed, the captain responds, “No, you move. I’m a dreadnought; it takes us much longer to turn and there’s no time. If you don’t we’ll crush you.” To which the light replies, “No, you move. I’m a lighthouse on dry land and you only have a few minutes before you hit the jagged rocks and boulders around me.”
It’s no secret that a handful of nations own, or control by proxy, most of the fossil fuel reserves in the world. Collectively they also produce and consume the lion’s share of the fuels, therefore their wealth and power are linked to them. That of course poses a dilemma as it conflicts with the urgent need to fight climate change. For that reason their goal seems to be a finely tweaked reduction, but not outright elimination, of fossil fuels as a principal component of the world’s energy supply. For example, if they were to assist poor nations that lack domestic sources of hydrocarbons (captive clients) make the transition to solar to generate all their electricity, three things would likely decline: the demand for fossil fuels, their price, and the need for dollars to pay for them. Conversely, poor nations would benefit greatly. They would pay nothing for fuel to generate electricity and they would save their hard-earned dollars for other priorities. This would amount to nothing less than a tectonic shift in the world order.
While better than nothing, it’s simply not enough to limit the average atmospheric temperature increase to an “acceptable” level. Already we’re experiencing catastrophic storms and devastating droughts; many if not most of the world’s great aquifers are being depleted at an alarming rate and entire rivers no longer reach the sea. Worse, there’s no global forum, not even a discussion to create one, to address a crisis that may well ignite wars and famine in the not too distant future.
Collectively, individually or in groups, countries should very seriously consider the possibility of creating an alternate binding mechanism within the context of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to:
- use solar energy to eventually generate all our electricity;
- use excess electricity to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of seawater;
- use the hydrogen expressly to manufacture pure water wherever it’s needed or desired, domestically or for export;
- generate additional electricity using hydrogen and gravity as described in Plan A above.
The technology exists, and it should improve. As for money, there’s plenty of idle private capital worldwide which could be tapped under the right terms and conditions.
Several variants of Plan A, designed for a variety of regions, are available. The question is, will the dreadnought change its course?
Sao Paulo’s Water Crisis
December 9, 2014
Sao Paulo, a city of 20 million people, has water for 60 days. Whether the cause is global warming, deforestation in the Amazon, or something else is irrelevant. The point is that the city depends on rainfall to replenish its reservoirs. Well, it’s not raining, and there’s no guarantee that the situation will improve. The truth is that despite all our technological achievements, we’re still as dependent on the natural water cycle as our Neanderthal and Homo Erectus ancestors. The difference is that now there are more mouths to feed and industries to supply, and that consumes far more water per person than ever before.
Let Sao Paulo’s predicament ring loud and clear. Perhaps our elected leaders will realize that it is unsustainable and preposterous, in this day and age, to rely on prehistoric technology. We must emulate agriculture: cease collecting water and start “growing” it. Of course, that requires hydrogen, the one element in water that is not found in the atmosphere.
The principle is simple. If Lima, Los Angeles (currently enduring the worst drought, by some measures, in 1,200 years), Beijing, Teheran, or any city in a similar situation were to use hydrogen instead of fossil or nuclear fuels to generate their electricity, they might well become water self-sufficient and greatly reduce their greenhouse emissions. Better yet, hydrogen is renewable; unlike fossil fuels, we’ll never deplete the ocean.
Swiss Water Splitter – 2014
December 8, 2014
The ongoing worldwide effort to improve the efficiency of using solar energy to split water to produce hydrogen -electrolysis- has added a new milestone. Scientists from Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) in Switzerland have achieved a solar energy to hydrogen conversion efficiency of 12.3 percent using nickel and iron electrode catalysts and perovskite solar absorbers, all common materials.
Only once, in 1988, was the 10% conversion efficiency rate -considered exceptional- exceeded, and that system used expensive platinum electrodes. In addition to its lower cost, perovskite cells can generate higher average open circuit voltages than silicon cells. As a result, only two perovskite cells are needed to generate the required 1.7 V for water electrolysis. Silicon systems require three cells.
One drawback: perovskite PVs are unstable. Photocurrent degradation occurs in a matter of hours. While the cause is not yet fully understood, scientists hope to solve this problem soon to enable scaling up or production.
Compromise at the Convention on Climate Change, Lima 2014
December 7, 2014
As at previous similar conventions, there is agreement on the overall goal, not on who should do what, when, and pay how much. Rather than repeating the entire list of disagreements, the following might become the basis for a possible compromise.
The overall goal is to reduce global greenhouse emissions. The current mindset is that each country is responsible for curbing a percentage of its emissions, and that rich nations must help poor nations with $100 billion annually by 2020. So far pledges to the Green Climate Fund amount to $10 billion, understandable since no one likes or wants to pay.
There’s nothing to prohibit one country from investing in another to reduce the 2nd country’s emissions. For example, China, the world’s largest emitter, could finance (as a loan, possibly even in Chinese currency) the installation of solar panels on each and every building in Lima, the host city. Gradually, following a well-designed plan, conventional power plants serving Lima would be taken off line. That would reduce Peru’s emissions. Simultaneously, also with Chinese funding, a plant to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of seawater (and chlorine, a byproduct) would be built. Emulating the successful Hawaiian model, excess electricity generated by Lima’s new solar panels would be used to power the plant.
Benefits for China
China would have the right to buy the hydrogen at a discounted price for a specified period of time, enough to amortize the loan. At the end of the period the price would revert to market price. Back home, China would use the hydrogen to generate electricity and produce pure water (a priceless byproduct) whether at planned or existing coal-fired power plants. Thus, China would get credit for reducing emissions in both countries, 100% in China and 50% in Lima, which would help it meet its greenhouse gases reduction goal/pledge. The additional electricity and water would help China maintain or expand its economic growth, a boon for the global economy.
Benefits for Peru
It would become an important exporter of hydrogen and chlorine, and since hydrogen is renewable its reserves would never run dry. It could invest the income from the sale of hydrogen to build yet more plants for domestic use. The new water would eventually compensate for the shrinking Andean glaciers, and it would save all those dollars currently being spent to buy fossil fuels for conventional plants.
Of course, the system can accommodate similar arrangements between other rich and poor nations.
Australian Solar Panels 40% Efficient
December 7, 2014
Researchers at the University of New South Wales announced that they were able to convert more than 40% of sunlight hitting panels into electricity. The tests were replicated at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in the United States.
A similar breakthrough (44.7%) at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, ISE, Soitec, CEA-Leti and the Helmholtz Center Berlin was announced in September 2013.